MAIN CARD (FOX, 8 p.m. ET)
Junior Dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic.
The main event of the evening brings Brazilian former heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos back to the octagon after a 419 day layoff to face rising heavyweight contender and former Division 1 wrestler, the fighting pride of Cleveland, OH, Stipe Miocic. The #2 ranked Dos Santos is 1-2 in his last three fights, 2 fights where he was completely outclassed by Cain Velasquez and a destruction of Mark Hunt in between them. Miocic, ranked two slots lower at #4, is riding a 3 fight winning streak, with decision wins over Roy Nelson and Gabriel Gonzaga and an absolute blasting of Fabio Maldanado. Despite the long layoff, Dos Santos comes into this fight a 3 to 1 favorite and is the higher pitched fighter for sure. However, Miocic does have tools that have been historically problematic for the Brazilian knockout artist. You could make a case he is a poor man’s Cain Velasquez. The kicking game and cardio aren’t like Cain’s but he can be a pressure fighter and that’s been an Achilles heel for Junior. While Miocic does have wrestling pedigree he opts to not use it often and Dos Santos take down defense is like Chuck Liddell’s, he just always finds a way to be on his feet to throw leather. That’s what I expect him to do in this one. I’ll take Dos Santos to get his hand raised.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic.
The main event of the evening brings Brazilian former heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos back to the octagon after a 419 day layoff to face rising heavyweight contender and former Division 1 wrestler, the fighting pride of Cleveland, OH, Stipe Miocic. The #2 ranked Dos Santos is 1-2 in his last three fights, 2 fights where he was completely outclassed by Cain Velasquez and a destruction of Mark Hunt in between them. Miocic, ranked two slots lower at #4, is riding a 3 fight winning streak, with decision wins over Roy Nelson and Gabriel Gonzaga and an absolute blasting of Fabio Maldanado. Despite the long layoff, Dos Santos comes into this fight a 3 to 1 favorite and is the higher pitched fighter for sure. However, Miocic does have tools that have been historically problematic for the Brazilian knockout artist. You could make a case he is a poor man’s Cain Velasquez. The kicking game and cardio aren’t like Cain’s but he can be a pressure fighter and that’s been an Achilles heel for Junior. While Miocic does have wrestling pedigree he opts to not use it often and Dos Santos take down defense is like Chuck Liddell’s, he just always finds a way to be on his feet to throw leather. That’s what I expect him to do in this one. I’ll take Dos Santos to get his hand raised.
Nate Diaz vs. Rafael dos Anjos
The co-main event brings a couple of guys at the top of the heap at 155 lbs to the cage. Brazilian dynamo, Rafael Dos Anjos brings a full tool belt to the cage, equal parts striker and grappler, his skills are on par with anyone in the division and can end a fight in a variety of ways. Stockton mean mugger, Nate Diaz also has a varied skill set, more of a volume striker than KO artist, his skills on the ground take a backseat to no one. The 3rd rank Dos Anjos is 2-1 in his last three with the loss coming to Khabib Nurmagomedov and wins, more recently over Jason High and Benson Henderson both KOs. Returning to the Octagon after a 378 day layoff, Diaz finds himself ranked 14th, his lowest ranking in a while, coming off a KO victory over Gray Maynard that was preceded by losses to both Josh Thomson by KO and Benson Henderson by decision. This fight is sure to be an exciting one if for no other reason than Nate Diaz is just not in boring fights. He’s third all time in fight bonuses behind Anderson Silva and Joe Lauzon with 11. However, in this one, I just think RDA’s path is set. He is destined to contend for the belt and Nate while very skilled, just doesn’t have enough. I do see a high volume of strikes coming from Nate but I think RDA is able to work his way around the strikes and with Nate’s vulnerability to leg kicks and RDA’s willingness to kick the legs, that becomes a fight changer. Nate’s not an easy guy to finish so Ill take RDA to get his hand raised, probably by decision. I feel bad Nate wants to get paid and he’s right there but can’t get over that hump where he as real negotiating power.
Alistair Overeem vs. Stefan Struve
In a meeting of two heavyweight Dutch fighters, things are not how they appear. 15th rank Stefan Struve is the tallest fighter in the division yet fights well in close and off his back. 11th ranked Allistair Overeem looks like you could hit him with a wrecking ball and he wouldn’t budge but his chin has left him. Struve who missed his last fight with a heart scare, hasn’t been in the Octagon since March of last year. In that fight, Mark Hunt walk off KO’d him but he had won his previous two fights, finishing card headliner Stipe Miocic and Lavar Johnson. Overeem who is showing that heavy handed strikers can find his chin and finish him, found just that fate against Ben Rothwell and Travis Browne, however he was able to grind out a decision against Frank Mir in between. I’d like to say that Overeem can still bring the Dutch striking like the old days but I just haven’t seen it. What I have seen is him on the canvas, a lot, trying to figure out how he got there. I don’t think that Struve can finish him but honestly if he can finish Miocic than a weak chinned Overeem is not that far fetched. He doesn’t hit as hard as the men who have finished the Reem but he has a good game off his back. Whether on the feet or the floor, I see Struve getting his hand raised and Overeem getting his walking papers.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Matt Mitrione
In a fight between two kill or be killed heavyweights, Matt Mitrione faces Gabriel Gonzaga to get some traction in the Heavyweight division. Mitrione the well documented, TUF alumni and former NFL player, is really looking sharp lately, first round Kos of Shawn Jordan and Derrick Lewis came after he was choked out by Brendan Schaub. Gonzaga, who famously head kick knocked out Mirko Cro Cop, is 2-1 in his last 3 as well but his two Kos, coming over Jordan and Dave Herman were before his most recent fight which was a loss to headliner Stipe Miocic. It went the distance which is rare for Gonzaga but it was Stipe’s fight throughout. In this one, the matchup makes for a very exciting fight, both of these guys are willing to open themselves up to receive strikes if it allows them to land. I don’t think that Gonzaga can finish Mitrione so I’ll take Mitrione to get his hand raised once the Brazilian’s gas tank is depleted.
PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX Sports 1, 5 p.m. ET)
Willie Gates vs. John Moraga
UFC vet and MMA Lab product John Moraga draws UFC newcomer Willie Gates. Gates is on a 5 fight win streak all coming by KO but Moraga has fought for the belt and is just too skilled I think for a UFC newcomer. Ill take Moraga to get his hand raised.
Joe Riggs vs. Ben Saunders
This is just too great of a story to resist. I think Ben Saunders is a very capable opponent but after the year that Riggs has had you’d like to see him get the win in front of the home crowd. Riggs return to the Octagon was derailed by a gunshot wound that he suffered but in a strange twist of fate it allowed him to fight on the Phoenix card.
Drew Dober vs. Jamie Varner
The last time Jamie Varner fought on Arizona soil, his hometown it was the final WEC show ever and it took place in Glendale. He fought Shane Roller, Roller found his neck and choked him out. Roller went to the UFC and Varner went to Titan Fighting Championships. It took him 3 more fights to get back to the UFC so to say he doesn’t want to have a better showing is an understatement. Also Jamie is very big in the community and with the Reebok deal coming in, Varner’s position to make local sponsorship dollars outside of the cage might be improved by a good showing here. I like him to get his hand raised in dramatic fashion.
Derek Brunson vs. Ed Herman
Great fight hidden amongst the Arizona boys. They don’t come that much tougher than Ed Herman but he is at a serious disadvantage athletically and I think it’s just too much to overcome. Brunson defeated Lorenz Larkin in his last fight and uses Ed Herman to build his career out further.
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Henry Cejudo vs. Dustin Kimura
The most intriguing part of the fight week for Cejudo may be here today at the weigh-ins. The former Olympian and Arizona product missed weight his last fight and has been questioned ever since about if this is really what he wants to do. But much like Riggs it may just be good fortune that he missed his last fight and gets to fight in his home state, He will be making his UFC debut and I think it will be an impressive one.
Source of article
